By Brendan Spiegel

As New York begins planning its next multibillion-dollar transportation capital program, one question looms over nearly every major transportation project in the state: When will Congress provide certainty about future transportation funding?

New York's current five-year transportation capital plan expires on March 31, 2027. But Congress has not yet approved a long-term successor to the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA)—the five-year federal law signed in 2021 that authorizes highway, bridge and transit funding through federal fiscal year 2026. 

That uncertainty is already beginning to affect transportation projects nationwide. A recent New York Times report found that as of July the Federal Transit Administration had not signed any new Capital Investment Grant agreement since President Trump returned to office, leaving more than $7 billion in congressionally appropriated transit funding yet to be obligated. The administration also temporarily paused federal funding for projects including New York's Second Avenue Subway expansion and the Gateway Tunnel before courts ordered funding to resume. Transportation advocates say the delays have made it more difficult for agencies to plan major capital investments and could ultimately drive up construction costs. Because federal dollars support roughly 40 percent of the New York State Department of Transportation's current $34 billion capital program, the uncertainty is complicating the state's efforts to develop its next long-term transportation plan.

Without knowing how much federal funding will ultimately be available over the next several years, state officials face a difficult choice: move forward with a new long-term capital plan based on uncertain assumptions or temporarily extend the current plan until Washington provides greater clarity.

"The challenge is that New York is trying to plan a multibillion-dollar transportation program without knowing what its federal partner is ultimately going to provide," said Ron Epstein, former executive deputy commissioner of the New York State Department of Transportation and now a senior advisor at Ostroff Associates.

Several industry sources told Under Construction News that if Congress does not act in time, New York may ultimately adopt a one- or two-year extension of its current capital plan before moving to another full five-year program—a step that would be consistent with how the state has responded during previous periods of federal uncertainty.

In recent decades, Congress has repeatedly struggled to approve long-term surface transportation legislation before existing authorizations expire. For several decades, lawmakers have routinely relied on a series of short-term extensions while negotiating broader transportation bills and identifying the revenues needed to support them.

New York has adapted before. The state's current five-year transportation capital plan was itself preceded by a two-year capital program adopted during an earlier period of federal uncertainty.

A temporary extension would not necessarily reduce the amount of work available to contractors, but it could make long-range business planning more difficult by limiting visibility into future projects and funding levels.

"For contractors and suppliers, the biggest issue is certainty," Epstein said. "Companies make decisions about hiring workers, purchasing equipment, and investing in their businesses based on long-term capital plans. The longer the uncertainty lasts, the more difficult it becomes to make those decisions with confidence."

Unlike the Metropolitan Transportation Authority—which receives roughly 20 percent of its capital funding from federal sources—NYSDOT relies on Washington for about 40 percent of its transportation capital program. That dependence means uncertainty in Congress affects not only the timing of New York's next capital plan but also the state's ability to confidently forecast future investments and deliver major infrastructure projects.

The uncertainty extends beyond timing. While the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has advanced legislation authorizing future transportation spending, Congress has not yet agreed on a long-term funding mechanism sufficient to support the increased investment being proposed. 

At the same time, inflation and rising construction costs have already reduced the purchasing power of New York's current capital program, meaning the next plan is expected to begin with a backlog of projects that have already been delayed or deferred.

New York's current transportation capital plan expires in March 2027. If Congress has not approved a new long-term transportation authorization by then, transportation experts say a temporary extension of the state's existing capital plan could serve as a bridge while federal lawmakers finish their work.

But Epstein said New York cannot simply wait for Washington to resolve the uncertainty. Regardless of when Congress acts, he said, the state should continue planning for the long term to provide contractors, workers and local communities with greater certainty about future infrastructure investments.

"That said, New York can't afford to sit on the sidelines waiting for Washington," Epstein said. "Whatever happens with federal transportation reauthorization, the State needs to continue developing its long-term transportation funding strategy in parallel—similar to the recently adopted MTA 2025-29 Capital Plan—that gives agencies, contractors, suppliers, and communities the certainty they need to plan for the future."

For contractors and carpenters, the hope is that both Washington and Albany provide the long-term certainty needed to keep major transportation projects moving.